Down What Rabbit-Hole is Trump Heading?

Trump started out as a joke, a fishing expedition, a toe in the water, a run-it-up-the-flagpole staging. Not much happened until he turned up the heat by characterizing the Mexicans crossing the border as drug runners, criminals and rapists. This lightning bolt of incivility didn’t do much to woo Latinos but it boosted his popularity among people I, for one, would not want to be popular with. But it registered where it matters most in politics, the polls.

Since that outburst, which was followed by his “program” to solve the immigration “problem” by deporting 11 million people and building a wall along the entire US-Mexico border, he’s never lost his lead among likely primary Republican voters.

We’ve had to live with hearing him repeat this obviously idiotic and unworkable policy position for months with little more than a few tweaks in the details. Then the terrorist attacks in Paris hit and everything changed and in ways that are disturbing. The imagined Mexican problems disappeared as targets for his quiver of hate to be replaced by Islam with a bit of good ol’ fashioned anti-Black sentiment to fill in any gaps in his schedule.[1]

He started by declaring that no Muslims should be admitted into the country, no matter what their origins are and no matter what kinds of horrors they’re fleeing.

He said that, as President, he would have to close many mosques because, he maintains, they’re not used as places of worship but as secret enclaves for political action.

He has said (repeatedly) that thousands of American Muslims cheered the events of 9/11. Alas, no matter how often he repeats the lie it remains a lie.

Then he kicked it up a notch — because his base was beginning to think that maybe he’d mellowed a bit. Christie out-Trumped him by stating that he wouldn’t even let an orphan under 5 years old in if their parents had been Muslims. And Ben Carson began gaining in the polls.[2]

He then introduced the argument that the way to deal with his fantasized Muslim scourge was to have every Muslim in the country, citizens included, be forced to have their vital information on a national data base that could be monitored. But Carson kept gaining and even Cruz started creeping up so he hinted in a Tweet that perhaps Muslim would also need to wear identifying badges.

After a session in which he outlined his plan for a national data base for Muslims a reporter from NBC asked him if he saw “a difference between requiring Muslims to register and how Jews were treated in Nazi Germany.” He answered, “You tell me.”

Even though he later tried walking this national data base notion back, it’s clear what his fans are hearing. It’s not hard to hear. There’s not a lot of subtlety to The Donald. The more nuanced use of “dog whistles” in past political campaigns has been replaced by outright, unvarnished racist and religious hatred. It’s deeply worrisome how his supporters are reacting to his message.

In a recent speech Birmingham, AL (of all places) a black man showed up wearing a T-shirt that had “Black Lives Matter” emblazoned on it and interrupted Trump by chanting those three words. Trump bellowed, “get him the hell outta here.” The man refused to leave — after all, it was an open political rally. The crowd knew how to get this unwelcome interloper out. Several men shoved him and punched him. One tackled him. A woman kicked him after he’d been dragged to the ground and he was repeatedly punched before security escorted him from the rally.

These are the folks who are gathering around Trump. This is where his xenophobic, racist and anti-Muslim blathering are taking us. It is not a happy place. No good can come from this.

 

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[1] He recently posted a set of totally fabricated statistics making it look like virtually every Black person killed in the country was murdered by another Black. In fact, the vast majority of killings are within-race for the simplest of reasons: proximity and opportunity.

[2] While there’s some overlap, Carson’s and Trump’s bases are different. Trump draws the racists and those frightened by “otherness.” Carson’s supporters are overwhelmingly evangelical Christians. Most evangelicals, even if they back Trump’s racist views, are suspicious of his religious commitments.

GOP Candidates: Disqualifying Levels of Raw Hatred

The astonishingly ugly, bilious anti-refugee hatred being spouted by Republicans (and, alas, a few Democrats) is deeply disturbing. It’s a frightening warning about what could happen to our land if any of these cretins were to actually become president.

Equally disturbing is the equally astonishing ignorance of the whole crew — or, if it’s not ignorance then it’s deviousness and a calculated effort to induce fear and incite hatred. The governors of various states, most pointedly Mike Pence of Indiana who today had refugee families relocated to Connecticut rather than provide a safe haven, seem not to know this (from The Economist):

“Refugees apply for resettlement at American embassies or through the United Nations. If they pass that first hurdle, they are screened by outposts of the Department of State all over the world. They undergo investigations of their biography and identity; FBI biometric checks of their fingerprints and photographs; in-person interviews by Department of Homeland Security officers; medical screenings as well as investigations by the National Counter-terrorism Centre and by American and international intelligence agencies. The process may take as long as three years, sometimes longer. No other person entering America is subjected to such a level of scrutiny.”

It’s tough to find words for the things that people like Ted Cruz are saying (no Muslim should be admitted), Donald Trump (close down mosques) and Chris Christie (not even orphans under the age of 5) but most troubling is that they are being said by people who love to wrap the flag of Christianity around their shoulders and talk about values and morality.

It’s a hideous display of raw hatred. Every one of these vicious people has publically disqualified them holding public office, let alone the presidency.

Carson is a Moron -- And Even His Advisors Know It.

Not too long ago I posted a blog on intelligence — specifically focusing on Dr. Ben Carson. My point was one that most people find odd, just how smart are brain surgeons? My conclusion, which most people also found odd, was “not very — certainly not necessarily.” If you go back and look at the analysis it’s not complicated. The kinds of mental dexterity and knowledge you need to be a surgeon isn’t all that it’s made out to be. You need good sensory-motor coordination, a solid grounding in physiology and anatomy and, critically, an ego the size of Wisconsin. Carson has all of these. But what he lacks is what is typically regarded as true intelligence: the ability to sift complex ideas, to “get” the balance between alternate visions, the capacity for critical thinking and an openness to new ideas and the ability to incororate them into one’s overall grasp of reality.

As the campaign has moved along Carson’s intellectual weaknesses have become more apparent. We first saw it when he denied climate change. It got kicked up a notch when he dismissed Darwinian evolution and got elevated to Trumpian levels when he suggested a “Christian” litmus test for high public office.

But what really knocked my socks off is that even his advisors and managers acknowledge that the great, esteemed, brilliant Dr. Carson is —- an intellectually challenged soul who seems incapable of learning the most basic elements of foreign affairs, an area that, last time I checked, was pretty close to the top of things a President needs to be on top of.

Don’t take it from me, this is from Carson’s foreign affairs advisor:

“Nobody has been able to sit down with him and have him get one iota of intelligent information about the Middle East,” said Duane R. Clarridge, a top adviser to Mr. Carson on terrorism and national security. He also said Mr. Carson needed weekly conference calls briefing him on foreign policy so “we can make him smart.”

Bottom line: You cannot “make” someone smart. The best you can do is to disguise his/her intellectual impoverishment in verbal flummery (are you paying attention Mr. Trump?) or teach them the delicate art of never answering the questions asked (hello, Mr. Cruz?) but when you’re assigned the impossible task of making Carson into someone who can lead the free world …. fuggedaboutit (sorry, lived in Brooklyn for 35 years).

Gambling Taxes: Poker and "Windfall" Income

Poker winnings are taxed in the United States. In fact, all gambling winnings are. Lottery winnings, slot jackpots, large exotic wins at the race track are all taxed when they exceed certain thresholds. The IRS regulations can be found here. In a country where one major political party makes lowering taxes its primary goal this is just weird. It also conflates poker with other forms of gambling, a problem I’ve addressed elsewhere.

Most industrialized countries have sensible and progressive income tax codes in place. And in virtually all of these gambling winnings (including poker — though there’s a subtlety that I’ll get to in a bit) are not taxed for the simplest of reasons: they’ve already been taxed.

Slot machines only pay back at rates from around 80% (penny slots) to 95% - 96% for the high roller machines ($10 a spin and upwards). The casinos’ drop on them is substantial and they pay corporate taxes on these profits.

Payouts at the race track have a similarly high vig with the so-called exotic bets only returning some 75 to 80 percent. The rest goes into the state coffers.

Lotteries are the worst of the bunch with the states taking out fully half of the pool.  

In short, these winnings are being double-taxed — and, as noted above, one of our major political parties screams bloody murder at inheritance taxes claiming that they’re unfair because the money is being taxed twice.

What most sensible countries do is to declare these large wins as “windfall” income and not subject to tax.

To get a felling for how bizarre the situation is consider this: If you hit the lottery for $10 million in the United States you’ll be lucky to get 3 million to spend. First, the actual pool was 20 million, so 50% is gone already. Second, the jackpot is paid out over a twenty year period during which the state will hold the principle (and keep the interest). Third, your annual return is degraded by inflation and, of course, subject to income tax. If you choose to take it in a lump sum the state will reduce the win by some amount (usually around 30%). If you live in a high-tax locale like New York City the burden is significant since the money is triple-taxed (Federal, State and City).

If you win a $20 million dollar lottery in Canada or the UK you’ll get the full twenty million up front and untaxed.

It’s hard to fathom the situation in the US. The GOP, the guilty party in the tax screw-ups, seems more than a little comfortable with hypocrisy here. I can only guess that it stems from another of their odd perspectives: gambling is a sin and should be taxed and taxed and taxed. Where did all the Libertarians go?

Okay, how about poker? Well, poker is a game of skill that more than a few play professionally — and, that, sports fans, is the key on how the tax issue should decided. If you’re a professional poker player and derive all or most of your income from the game then you should be paying taxes on it. And, because you’re declaring your tax status in this manner, you get to deduct business expenses. These would include travel to tournaments, business expenses when away from home, tournament entry fees. In short, you should be treated by the IRS like other professionals — tennis players, golfers and bowlers who play games for a living.

But if you’re an amateur who plays recreationally and manage a big payday (like Neil Blumenfield just did in the WSOP Main Event) then it should be treated as windfall income and not taxed. In this year’s Main Event the final table paid a total of $24.8 million to the nine players and, according to an analysis by Russ Fox, some 34% of it will go to taxes. The only player to be able to enjoy his full windfall is Pierre Neuville who lives in Belgium.

The same principle should apply to other “gambling” forums where skill triumphs like sports betting, horse racing and, if the dust ever settles, fantasy sports.

My Humble Assessment of the '15 WSOP Main Event

I watched the superbly well-orchestrated, three-evening final table of the 2015 World Series of Poker Main Event. There was a decent amount of drama and a more-or-less predictable end. Joe McKeehen came to the final table with a significant chip stack advantage. The game, when played at this level, affords the chip leader a significant edge. He/she can keep pots small, utilize position, put pressure on shorter stacks and, importantly, can afford to lose a couple of chips if a hand goes awry.

I appreciate that Joe McKeehen did these things, and did them with élan. He played the big stack game as well as it can be played. He stuck to his “small ball” strategy for the most obvious of reasons: why risk a big chunk of your stack when you don’t have to. He put pressure on the others at every opportunity for the most obvious of reasons: raise when you’ve got the big stack and position because your opponents won’t call or raise you unless they’ve got a serious hand —  and, in which case, you just fold.

Joe just chipped away and chipped up. It was weird watching it. I kept wanting someone at the table to wrest control away from him. Start three- and four-betting him. Push back. The cards really don’t mean that much at this point — particularly pre-flop. McKeehen stole pot after pot simply because none of his opponents were willing to push back.

My problem with the way Beckley, Blumenfield and the others from Days 1 and 2 played is simple: adopting a measured stance won’t work. You’re going to go broke, not in one blaze of glory but by a slow attrition as your stacks get ground down. Eventually you’re going to have to take a stand and , of course, that’s when you get knocked out. But the longer you wait the smaller the return on your “shove” will be if you win it.

So, I wonder…. why do this? Well, one obvious reason is to lay low and try to move up — after all, each step has a serious payout bump. Finishing 2rd was worth a million coconuts over ending up in 3rd.

But 1st was worth 7.7 million and over two million more than runner-up.

And the painful truth, which every serious poker junkie knows at some level, this strategy won’t work if you get shitty cards and your opponents get good ones.

But if you pick up premium hand after premium hand, hit something like 75% of the flops; if your opponents miss virtually every draw and almost never hit their second pair you’re gonna be just fine.

And so it went. As Antonio put it, “if you ever want to run really, really good there’s no better place to do it than here, the final table of the Main Event.”

So, congrats to McKeehen but, from this recreational player’s perspective, I’d really have liked watching a more competitive match where the luck factor got spread out among the contestants. This final table felt a lot like Jamie Gold’s in 2006. Since then, Gold has disappeared into the statistical morass that sucks up the one-timers. McKeehen may have serious poker chops. We’ll find out.